Key Takeaways
Construction spending remains historically elevated, with the annualized rate holding at $2.19 trillion in January 2026 - posting its second consecutive year-over-year gain after ten straight quarterly declines. Public highway outlays rose 3.3 percent from December, providing particularly firm support for structural and long-product steel demand.
Housing starts, automotive sales, agricultural equipment orders, and HVAC shipments together paint a picture of an uneven but still-active steel consuming environment in early 2026. While some categories softened from late 2025 peaks, none has entered a recessionary contraction, and several show meaningful sequential improvement.
Domestic supply-side conditions remain distinctly favorable for mills: Section 232 tariffs were raised from 25 percent to 50 percent in June 2025 and remain intact, hot-rolled coil prices are trading near $1,059 per metric ton as of late March 2026 - up roughly 19 percent year-over-year - and ferrous scrap posted a sharp 7.5 percent gain in February, supporting both producer margins and pricing discipline.
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