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Takeaways:

  • Construction planning, tracked by the Dodge Momentum Index, is cooling in early 2026 but remains at historically high levels, pointing to slower near-term activity yet a solid pipeline for future steel demand.

  • Residential housing construction is rebounding, with January 2026 housing starts up 7.2% from December and 9.5% above a year earlier, driven by multi-family projects that are especially steel intensive.

  • HVAC equipment shipments - another key steel consuming segment tied to construction and housing - are under pressure after a weak 2025, suggesting softer short term steel demand from mechanical systems even as long term fundamentals remain intact.

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